Jul 19ย โขย 6 min read
๐๏ธ Everybody got receipts
July 19, 2026 ๐๏ธ MRKTcapBrought to you by
๐ฅณ Happy Sunday. โ ๐ค the AI selloff that spread across oceans โฝ why oil had the market looking at the Fed sideways ๐บ the Hollywood deal that went from green light to courtroom fight Plus, Big Pharma wrote a check that sounds like a Netflix doc waiting to happen. โ Market Crowdโ *As of market close on Friday, July 17th. Pre-Market Playโ
๐ Five straight records, still sold off...And the whole chip group paid for it. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the company that physically makes the chips for Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom, reported its fifth straight record quarter, with profit up 77.4% from a year ago. The chip group's response? TSM fell 3.64%. Micron (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) each dropped more than 5%.
You'd think five straight record quarters earns some goodwill. Apparently not. U.S.-listed SK Hynix (SKHY) lost 13%. The chip ETF (SMH) dropped nearly 4%. By morning, the sell-off had crossed the Pacific. SoftBank (SFTBY) sank 8.8% in Japan. Chip equipment makers Tokyo Electron and Advantest, both listed in Japan, each lost about 9%. Kioxia, a Japanese memory chipmaker, fell more than 14% after a Texas jury ordered it to pay $229 million for infringing a patent on flash memory tech (a separate hit on top of the AI sell-off). TSMC also lifted its annual building budget to between $60 billion and $64 billion, up from between $52 billion and $56 billion. Investors looked past it. Right as AMD usually goes up heading into the week of July 22, the stock fell more than 5% on the sell-off. Simply put: too many traders in the same bet all heading for the exit at once. Not a sign the underlying business is cracking. โ ๐ข๏ธ Toll booth up... toll booth down...All in 24 hours, while the world's oil watched. The United States and Iran have been trading strikes for three straight nights, and the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway that carries about 20% of the world's oil) is right in the middle of it. U.S. forces hit Iranian radar systems, missile launchers, and small boats. Iran fired back at U.S. bases in the Gulf, then hit commercial vessels with cruise missiles inside the strait. The U.S. military says seven ships were attacked over the past week, with roughly a dozen crew dead, missing, or injured. And then Toupee Fiasco (Trump) showed up with a price tag... He announced a 20% fee on every cargo ship passing through Hormuz, then reinstated the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The UN called it illegal. Toupee Fiasco dropped the toll the next day. Said he'd replace it with Gulf state trade deals instead. Not a word from any of them. He's already naming targets: power plants. Bridges. Unless Iran negotiates, next week gets "really bad." Traffic through Hormuz dropped 52% in one week. WTI (U.S. crude) hit $80. Brent (international crude) hit $85, and war-risk insurance premiums are expected to spike. Oil didn't care about the debate. Fed rate-hike odds for July 29 jumped from 34% to 47% in a day. The market noticed. S&P 500 fell 0.8%. Nasdaq dropped 1.5%. โ โ๏ธ The feds waved it through...And then 12 states showed up with a lawsuit. A group of 12 state attorneys general, led by California's Rob Bonta, filed a federal lawsuit Monday to stop the Paramount Skydance (PSKY) acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), claiming the deal would hand one company control of 27% of US theater releases and basic cable channels. They also filed for a temporary restraining order to pause the deal while the court decides. Interesting timing, considering the DOJ already cleared this deal in June. Paramount called the suit "fundamentally flawed" and said it's ready to fight this all the way to the Supreme Court. The EU has until July 22 to decide, and Paramount says the deal could close as early as that date once Europe signs off. If the close slips past September 30, Paramount owes WBD shareholders roughly $650 million per quarter in penalty fees until the deal finally closes. โ ๐ซ TMYK A ______ gives someone the right (but not the obligation) to sell a stock at a set price before a deadline. Click your answer below: Gimme some mo' ๐ฅ UnitedHealth's turnaround is holding โ โ โ โ โ ๐คณ๐พ Let me check my palm pilot
Monday 7/20: Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY), W. R. Berkley (WRB), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)
Market Outlook Data provided by Swingset. Trend of the Week
To wealth in every sense of the word, Tela Holcomb
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