August 23, 2026

🛋️ MRKTcap

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🥳 Happy Sunday.

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In this newsletter we're diving into:

🤝 A tech giant just paid billions to lock in a chip deal, and its longtime supplier got left out in the cold

💉 A vaccine maker just posted its biggest win in years, and it has nothing to do with a virus

💸 The government just made a move putting the squeeze on the people in charge of your interest rates

Plus, somebody made six figures on a bet placed hours before the news even broke.

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Make yourself comfy 🛋️ and let's get into it...

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Market Crowd​
​How the market did this week.

Dow 53,277.01 -455.40 -0.85%

S&P 7,674.37 -111.39 -1.43%

Nasdaq 26,180.46 -548.70 -2.05%

*As of market close on Friday, August 21st.

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Pre-Market Play​
​A market beat to start your week.
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🤝 Google's buying in...

And Marvell just handed over the keys.

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Marvell (MRVL) jumped 6% after a securities filing revealed Google (GOOGL) can buy up to $12.2 billion worth of Marvell stock.

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The number behind that... 58,970,907 shares, priced at $206.58 each, tied to purchase targets running all the way through fiscal 2033.

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That's not pocket change.

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This is round two. In April, Marvell first popped on a report of this same Google chip deal, and now it's locked in on paper.

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TPUs, AI inference chips, storage and network controllers, all part of the expanded agreement.

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Google's playing the field, too.

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Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are all building their own AI chips to cut how much they lean on Nvidia.

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For a decade, Google's go-to chip partner has been Broadcom (AVGO).

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AVGO fell about 5% the same day, proof that adding a new supplier still stings the old one.

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The $206.58 price Google locked in is now the level MRVL has to defend, and heading into the end of August, MRVL usually goes up around then anyway, giving it a real shot to hold above it.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch whether MRVL holds above the $206.58 price Google's allowed to pay, because that level is now the tell for whether this deal keeps paying off or fades.

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💉 Moderna's giving redemption arc...

And this time nobody needed a pandemic.

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Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) just posted first-ever late-stage results for their personalized cancer vaccine, and they're good.

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More than 1,100 patients with high-risk melanoma got the shot alongside Keytruda, Merck's immunotherapy and the standard treatment, after their cancer had already been cut out by surgery.

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The combo significantly extended how long patients went without the melanoma coming back, compared to Keytruda alone.

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Real results, not just hope.

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It also cut the odds of the cancer spreading somewhere else in the body.

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Here's what makes this one different... it's built from each patient's own tumor.

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Every tumor carries its own unique set of mutations, even in patients with the same cancer.

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So instead of one shot for everyone, this one's custom-made to train a patient's immune system to hunt down their tumor's fingerprints, then teams up with Keytruda to finish the job.

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Dr. Jane Healy, Merck's head of oncology early development, called the results clinically meaningful and said side effects were about the same as any other vaccine.

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MRNA jumped more than 10% before the opening bell. MRK climbed about 1%.

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An analyst at Leerink called this result make-or-break for Moderna's stock, and the market's betting the personalized approach works on more than just melanoma. It's being tested in lung, bladder, and kidney cancer too.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch for the full data at the companies' next medical conference and any word on when they file for approval, because that timeline is what turns this trial win into an actual product.

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💸 Bessent's playing Fed now...

And it's making Kevin Warsh's job a lot harder.

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On Wednesday, the Treasury Department said it's doubling how much of its own long-term debt it'll buy back, from $2 billion to "more than $4 billion per issue," Bessent told CNBC Thursday.

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That's Bessent leaning on the 10-year yield, which sets your mortgage rate. Except Treasury hasn't bought a single bond yet... those purchases don't start until early September.

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The announcement alone moved markets anyway. The 10-year climbed to 4.74%, dropped to 4.65%, then crept back to 4.704% by Thursday.

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Yellen leaned on short-term debt like this back in 2024. Bessent blasted her for it, called it 'putting her thumb on the scale.' Now it's his play.

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The real pressure point is further out. The 30-year bond sits at 5.235%, levels not seen since before the 2008 crash. Bessent calls that liquidity "very poor" and says Treasury's coming for it next.

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Here's the twist... Fed Chair Kevin Warsh proposed this exact handshake himself in 2025, before he had the job. Now Bessent says the two "would work together." Only his own plan would shrink how much debt the Fed's sitting on and shift it toward short-term debt, pushing yields the opposite way. Cooperating and colliding at the same time.

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Economist Joseph Brusuelas said it "will make life more difficult for Kevin Warsh."

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch what Warsh says at Jackson Hole next week. Treasury hasn't bought a bond yet, buybacks start in early September, so if the 10-year keeps drifting back toward 4.74% before then, that's the real test.

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💫 TMYK
​A quick pop quiz to help you learn about the market. The more you know!​
​

When a call option's strike price is below the current stock price, it's said to be ______.

Click your answer below:

a.) out of the money

b.) at the money

c.) in the money

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Gimme some mo'
​More news from 'round the market.
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💸 Nvidia's OpenAI guarantee shrinks
Nvidia (NVDA) is backing a new OpenAI data center in Ohio, but the credit guarantee behind it already got cut in half before the ink dried here's what changed →

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​🍿 CEO fired twice, same reason
L3Harris pushed out CEO Chris Kubasik over a workplace relationship, the same reason that cost him a different top job back in 2012 some things never change →

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​🔮 Someone knew something first
Someone made $111,000 in options bets on Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) hours before Toupee Fiasco hinted the exchange might go legal in the U.S. read the receipts →

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​🛠️ Home Depot beats a frozen market
Home Depot beat on sales and profit while calling the housing market frozen solid see the numbers →

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​🛒 Walmart's earnings didn't add up
Walmart (WMT) beat estimates and raised its outlook, but the stock still dropped 6% before the bell here's why investors weren't buying it →

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​🚗 Carvana caught in someone else's mess
Carvana shares dropped 10% this week after a federal probe into major shareholder Mark Walter rattled investors here's what's actually going on →

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​🛢️ Oil's still flowing through Hormuz
Central Command says 660 million barrels have moved through the strait since May, way more than private trackers are counting here's who's right →

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🤳🏾 Let me check my palm pilot
​Earnings events on deck this coming week.

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Market Outlook
​A look at how the market does historically over the next week.

Dow Up 10 out of 15 years

S&P Up 8 out of 15 years

Nasdaq Up 9 out of 15 years

Data provided by Swingset.

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Trend of the Week

Chevron Corp (CVX) has a trend of going up over the next week. It’s gone up 13 out of the last 15 years moving an average of +1.81% and projected to repeat this move August 21st - 28th. Chevron Corp (CVX) As of Aug 21, 2026 $205.27 Trend Type 1 Week Up Recurrence 13 / 15 Avg Change +1.81% Trend History YEAR · CHANGE 2011 +5.83% 2012 +0.33% 2013 +3.49% 2014 +0.64% 2015 +6.16% 2016 +0.11% 2017 +1.41% 2018 +1.63% 2019 -0.89% 2020 +0.12% 2021 +1.72% 2022 -0.85% 2023 +0.58% 2024 +0.47% 2025 +1.53% 2026 Aug 21 → Aug 28

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How'd you like this edition of MRKTcap? ​ 😕 Meh. Needs more spice.​ ​ 🙂 Not bad. Hit the highlights.​ ​ 😍 Nailed it! I'd read this again.​

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To wealth in every sense of the word,

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This newsletter is by no means a solicitation to buy or sell any of the above-mentioned securities. It is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any affiliate. Expressions of opinion are as of this date, are solely that of the writer and are subject to change without notice. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and due diligence. This newsletter may contain affiliate links and we may receive commissions, at no cost to you, for purchases made through links in this email. The MRKTcap team often invests in the same stocks that we cover.

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