MRKTcap

Mar 02Β β€’Β 8 min read

πŸ›‹οΈ Stripe eyes PayPal


March 1, 2026

πŸ›‹οΈ MRKTcap

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πŸ₯³ Happy Sunday!

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In this newsletter we're diving into:

πŸšͺ The β€œAI took the job” moment Wall Street rewarded

πŸ’³ The buyout rumor that moved a big ticker in one day

πŸš— The Europe numbers that keep getting worse for a certain EV giant

Plus, the AI chip story that had investors asking β€œwho else can build this stuff?”

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Make yourself comfy πŸ›‹οΈ and let's get into it...


Market Crowd​
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How the market did this week.

Dow

48,977.92

-648.05

-1.31%

S&P

6,878.88

-30.63

-0.44%

Nasdaq

22,668.21

-217.86

-0.95%

*As of market close on Friday, February 27th.


Pre-Market Play​
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A market beat to start your week.
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Let 'em Know
T.I.
0:44 3:45
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πŸ€– AI took their jobs...

And the CEO wants you to know he's not even a little apologetic.

Block (XYZ), the company behind Square and Cash App, cut 40% of its workforce. About 4,000 people, gone. Headcount dropping from over 10,000 to under 6,000.

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On the earnings call, Dorsey told investors β€œintelligence tools” changed what it means to build and run a company.

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Then he posted on X and said it loud.

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"Our business is strong. But something has changed."

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Translation: AI is doing the work now.

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The stock jumped 25% in after-hours trading Thursday, settling at a 17% gain by Friday’s close. Morgan Stanley upgraded Block to overweight. Goldman Sachs raised their price target. Wells Fargo kept its buy rating, calling the quarter β€œchock full of positive surprise.”

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Goldman noted the cuts are concentrated in engineering roles. Block’s been leaning on its in-house AI platform, Goose, to replace the work. Block is now targeting north of $2 million in gross profit per head. Roughly four times where it sat before Covid.

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Not everybody’s buying it. Block’s transaction losses climbed to 18% of gross profit, up from 11% a year ago. Piper Sandler called the reduction β€œan extreme step” and stayed skeptical of long-term growth.

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Block flagged $450 million to $500 million in restructuring costs, front-loaded into Q1. Dorsey says most companies will reach the same conclusion within a year.

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πŸ₯‘
The Takeaway: XYZ’s 17% gain on a 40% workforce cut shows investors are rewarding AI-driven efficiency. Watch Q1 earnings to see if restructuring costs and rising transaction losses start to weigh on the stock.


πŸ’³ Stripe eyes PayPal...

And Wall Street started doing the running man.

PayPal (PYPL) stock jumped nearly 7% after Bloomberg reported that Stripe, one of the most valuable private companies in the world, is considering buying all or part of the payments platform.

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The discussions are in early stages.

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Both companies declined to comment.

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Here’s the context…

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PayPal has been in a bad stretch. The stock dropped more than a third of its value in 2025, and it’s down over 19% this year before this news hit.

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The company’s board also named HP’s Enrique Lores (an executive best known for running the printer and PC company) as its new CEO, set to start in March.

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Meanwhile, Stripe is out here winning.

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The company hit a $159 billion valuation on the same day this story broke, up from $91.5 billion a year ago. Nearly double in 12 months.

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Stripe also told investors its revenue is on track to hit a $1 billion annual run rate this year.

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So why would a company on a run like that want to buy PayPal?

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PayPal still has deep roots in e-commerce checkout, the kind of infrastructure that would extend Stripe’s reach into an already massive market.

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The question now is whether this deal happens, or whether it’s the kind of rumor that pops the stock for a day and disappears.

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M&A rumors at the β€œearly stages” phase have a long history of going nowhere, which means PYPL gives back these gains fast if nothing materializes.

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πŸ₯‘
The Takeaway: PYPL moved 7% on a rumor, which tells you how starved the stock is for a catalyst. Watch for any follow-up from Bloomberg or either company confirming or denying the deal. That next headline is what decides whether these gains hold or fade.


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πŸš— Honey, that glow is fading...

And the numbers to prove it are wild.

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Tesla (
TSLA) recorded just 8,075 new car registrations across Europe in January.

That's a 17% drop from a year ago and the 13th consecutive month of declining sales.
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Thirteen months.

Tesla's market share across the EU, UK, Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland fell to 0.8%. It was 1% a year ago.
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BYD, Tesla's biggest Chinese rival, registered 18,242 new cars in Europe that same month. That's a 165% jump year-over-year.
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BYD now holds 1.9% market share in the region, up from 0.7% in January 2025.
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What's going on?
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A few things, and none of them are new.
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First, Tesla's image took a hit in Europe after CEO Elon Musk spent nearly $300 million helping elect Toupee Fiasco (Trump) and then led a push to gut federal agencies. Protests erupted at Tesla dealerships across Europe at the height of all that.
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Second, competition got real. Affordable EVs from BYD, MG, and ZEEKR are flooding the market, and Tesla has no new models to counter with. They've been focused on autonomous driving and robotics instead.
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Third. And this one does not get talked about enough.
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A ton of first-generation Teslas are hitting the used market after four-to-six year leases ended. That flood of secondhand inventory is dragging down used prices, which makes buying new feel even harder to justify.
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Morningstar's chief equity strategist put it this way: BYD and Chinese automakers have a cost advantage that won't go away anytime soon, because of lower labor costs in China.
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The gap in battery and auto production costs is closing for Tesla and European automakers.
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The word "closing" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
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TSLA shares were down about 0.5% in premarket trading and are down roughly 11% year-to-date.

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πŸ₯‘
The Takeaway: This 13-month streak in Europe confirms the trend bears have been watching. Watch how TSLA reacts to any upcoming delivery data or news about Musk's relationship with European leaders. That's what flips the sentiment.


πŸ’« TMYK
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A quick pop quiz to help you learn about the market. The more you know!​
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A price level where a stock often stops falling and bounces is called ______.

a.) support

b.) spread

c.) premium

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Scroll down for the answer!


Gimme some mo'
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More news from 'round the market.
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πŸ€– OpenAI’s $110B bag​
Amazon (
AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) backed OpenAI’s $110B raise as Amazon also expanded its AWS deal by $100B over eight years. [Link]

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🧠 Nvidia gets the side-eye​
Nvidia (
NVDA) fell as OpenAI said it will use Amazon (AMZN) Trainium chip capacity and customers look harder at AMD (AMD) and Google (GOOGL) chips. [Link]

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🧲 MP picks Texas magnets​
MP Materials (
MP) picked Texas for a $1.25B rare earth magnet site as the U.S. pushes to rely less on China’s supply chain. [Link]

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🎬 Netflix walks from the WBD deal​
Netflix (
NFLX) said it won’t match Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) because the price β€œis no longer financially attractive.” [Link]

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πŸ§‘β€πŸ’» IBM gets hit by Claude​
IBM (
IBM) fell after Anthropic said Claude Code can help modernize COBOL, a business IBM leans on. [Link]

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🧩 Software stocks catch a bounce​
Salesforce (
CRM), Docusign (DOCU), and Thomson Reuters (TRI) rose after Anthropic announced new partnerships and Wall Street cooled off on β€œAI replaces software” fear. [Link]


🀳🏾 Let me check my palm pilot
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Earnings events on deck this coming week.

​Monday 4/13: Goldman Sachs (GS), Fastenal (FAST)

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​Tuesday 4/14: CarMax (KMX), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)

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Wednesday 4/15:
ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), Progressive (PGR)

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Thursday 4/16:
Abbott (ABT), Alcoa (AA), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Prologis (PLD), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Travelers (TRV), U.S. Bancorp (USB)

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Friday 4/17:
Ally Financial (ALLY), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), State Street (STT), Truist Financial (TFC)
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​What's earnings?​

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Market Outlook
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A look at how the market does historically over the next week.

Dow

Down 8 out of the last 15 years

S&P

Up 9 out of the last 15 years

Nasdaq

Down 8 out of the last 15 years

Data provided by Swingset.


Trend of the Week

McCormick & Company (MKC) has a trend of going up over the next week.

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It's gone up
12 out of the last 15 years moving an average of 2.05% and projected to repeat this move Feb 27 - Mar 6th.


πŸ’« TMYK - Answer

A price level where a stock often stops falling and bounces is called ______.

a.) support
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Buyers tend to step in around that level and start buying which pushes the stock back up.


To wealth in every sense of the word,

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How'd you like this edition of MRKTcap?

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πŸ˜• Meh. Needs more spice.​
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πŸ™‚ Not bad. Hit the highlights.​

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😍 Nailed it! I'd read this again.​

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This newsletter is by no means a solicitation to buy or sell any of the above-mentioned securities. It is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any affiliate. Expressions of opinion are as of this date, are solely that of the writer and are subject to change without notice. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and due diligence. This newsletter may contain affiliate links and we may receive commissions, at no cost to you, for purchases made through links in this email. The MRKTcap team often invests in the same stocks that we cover.

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