August 2, 2026

🛋️ MRKTcap

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🥳 Happy Sunday.

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In this newsletter we're diving into:

🤖 Two tech giants split in opposite directions as Wall Street picks its AI winners

🛢️ Who's quietly banking record profits while the world watches a war

🏦 The money bosses couldn't agree, and the split tells you where things are headed

Plus, one group of stocks quietly jumped 20% while nobody was looking.

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Make yourself comfy 🛋️ and let's get into it...

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Market Crowd​
​How the market did this week.

Dow 52,485.03 +537.78 +1.04%

S&P 7,489.72 +77.74 +1.05%

Nasdaq 25,373.85 +398.03 +1.59%

*As of market close on Friday, July 31st.

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Pre-Market Play​
​A market beat to start your week.
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🏆 Wall Street just picked a winner...

And it's not the one everyone expected.

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Apple (AAPL) beat on earnings, revenue, and iPhone sales this quarter, and Wall Street sold it anyway.

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AAPL fell 7% in premarket trading, while Amazon (AMZN) jumped 12% the same morning.

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Same earnings season, same morning, two completely different verdicts.

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Apple's problem is next quarter, not this one. The company told investors to expect 9% to 11% revenue growth, well under the 12% Wall Street wanted.

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Blame the memory chip shortage. It's already pushed Apple to raise prices on Macs and iPads, and an iPhone price hike is expected before the year's out.

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Amazon's problem was the opposite of a problem. Cloud revenue grew almost 37%, its fastest pace since 2021, and that wasn't even the biggest number in the report.

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Amazon also raised its spending plan for the year to $220 billion, up from the $200 billion it forecast last quarter.

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Investors have spent all season worried Big Tech is spending ahead of demand. Amazon's growth just made that bill look worth paying.

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Here's the twist... Apple's still up 23% for the year. Amazon's only up about 4%.

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The market flipped the script anyway.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch AAPL into the fall iPhone launch, because the memory shortage behind this outlook miss isn't fixed yet, and Tim Cook already said pricing pressure keeps building past September.

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🛢️ Big Oil's report card came back split...

And investors didn't react the same way to either one.

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Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both posted big Q2 profit jumps Friday, the same war-driven oil surge that just gave Shell's best quarter since 2022.

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Chevron's the one that won the day. Net income soared to $12 billion, up nearly 400% from $2.5 billion, and adjusted earnings beat estimates by 50 cents a share.

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Exxon's the bigger company by profit dollars ($14.5 billion, double last year's $7.1 billion) but it still came up 8 cents short of what analysts expected.

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Pennies decided this one.

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That gap is why Chevron shares ticked up about 1% before the bell while Exxon slipped nearly 2%.

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The fuel behind both numbers is crude oil, which averaged $92.45 a barrel from April through June, up 27% from the quarter before.

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Chevron's cashing in on more than price too. U.S. production hit an all-time high near 2 million barrels a day, and worldwide output jumped 20% to 4 million.

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"We're kind of firing on all cylinders, which is good, because the world needs it," CEO Mike Wirth said.

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Exxon didn't get the same production boost to lean on, just a profit number that already had the war priced in.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch whether Chevron's gap over Exxon holds or closes as more energy earnings land, because a 50-cent beat versus an 8-cent miss is the difference the market's pricing in right now.

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🏦 Hold, said nine...

Three members voted to raise your rates instead.

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The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%.

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But three of its own members pushed back.

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Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all voted to raise rates right now.

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That's the first time three Fed officials have lined up behind the same move against the chair since September 2016.

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Here's why that matters.

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Prices have been running above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years.

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The conflict in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, and tariffs are adding pressure on top.

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All of that is showing up in what you pay.

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Credit card rates are sitting near 24%.

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Mortgage rates are around 6.76%, close to a one-year high.

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New car loans are running 7%, and used car loans are at 10.5%.

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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh issued another short statement after the vote, about 130 words with no signals on what comes next.

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Toupee Fiasco (Trump) backed Warsh publicly, calling him "fantastic," while describing other board members as having "bad intentions."

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Traders are now betting on an 80% chance of a rate hike in September.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch the September meeting, because with three officials already voting to hike and 80% of the market betting they get their way, another hold is starting to look like the surprise outcome.

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💫 TMYK
​A quick pop quiz to help you learn about the market. The more you know!​
​

When a trader sells an options contract instead of buying one, they're said to be ______ the option.

Click your answer below:

a.) writing

b.) shorting

c.) halting

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Gimme some mo'
​More news from 'round the market.
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🎢 Chips just erased a bad week
A trillion dollar semiconductor selloff flipped into a rally after Microsoft and Lam Research (LRCX) posted strong earnings here's who popped the most →

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​🫀 Novo's heart drug just flopped
Novo Nordisk's heart drug missed its goal and NVO dropped as much as 10%, its worst day since February what this means before earnings →

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​🛻 Ford beat and raised the outlook
Ford Motor Company (F) beat on adjusted earnings, raised its profit forecast, and still posted a net loss, with the F-Series recovery set to drive the second half what the numbers actually say →

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​🌮 Yum stayed quiet on purpose
Yum Brands (YUM) beat on profit and missed on revenue but said nothing about the Taco Bell outbreak crushing foot traffic here's what they left out →

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​🤖 Visa's AI headcount move
Visa (V) just cut 2,600 jobs (7% of its workforce) and said AI is why, betting the savings fund its next growth push in cross-border payments and stablecoins here's what that means for the stock →

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​💥 Iran broke the pause
Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. forces just after signaling it would hold off, Saudi Arabia joined the retaliation, and now two oil shipping lanes are disrupted at the same time what this does to oil →

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🤳🏾 Let me check my palm pilot
​Earnings events on deck this coming week.

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Market Outlook
​A look at how the market does historically over the next week.

Dow Up 8 out of 15 years

S&P Up 9 out of 15 years

Nasdaq Up 9 out of 15 years

Data provided by Swingset.

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Trend of the Week

Philip Morris International Inc (PM) has a trend of going down over the next week. It’s gone down 12 out of the last 15 years moving an average of -1.47% and projected to repeat this move July 31st - August 7th. Philip Morris International Inc (PM) As of Jul 31, 2026  ·  📞 Earnings Oct 21, 2026 $190.82 Trend Type 1 Week Down Recurrence 12 / 15 Avg Change -1.47% Trend History YEAR · CHANGE 2011 -6.29% 2012 -0.13% 2013 -1.09% 2014 +0.85% 2015 -0.51% 2016 -1.60% 2017 -1.04% 2018 -0.89% 2019 -2.69% 2020 -0.43% 2021 -0.83% 2022 -1.30% 2023 -0.84% 2024 +0.50% 2025 +4.43% 2026 Jul 31 → Aug 7

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How'd you like this edition of MRKTcap? ​ 😕 Meh. Needs more spice.​ ​ 🙂 Not bad. Hit the highlights.​ ​ 😍 Nailed it! I'd read this again.​

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To wealth in every sense of the word,

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