Feb 22, 2026

🛋️ MRKTcap

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🥳 Happy Sunday!

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In this newsletter we're diving into:

🤝 The AI deal that has Nvidia and OpenAI in the same group chat

🧾 The Supreme Court ruling that could change the price tags you see in stores

🛢️ The Iran deadline that has oil prices acting up

Plus, DoorDash is trying to convince Wall Street its big spend was worth it.

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Make yourself comfy 🛋️ and let's get into it...

Market Crowd​
​How the market did this week.

*As of market close on Friday, February 20th.

Pre-Market Play​
​A market beat to start your week.
​

Day 'N Nite (nightmare)

Kid Cudi

0:44 3:45

🤝 Thirty billion reasons to pay attention...

Nvidia (NVDA) is in talks to drop $30 billion into OpenAI as part of a funding round valuing the AI startup at $730 billion.

via GIPHY

Before you say “wait, didn’t we hear this before?”

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Yes and no.

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Back in September 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a $100 billion infrastructure agreement where NVDA would invest over several years as it brought new supercomputing facilities online.

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Then in January, the Wall Street Journal reported that deal was “on ice.”

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This new $30 billion? Separate from that original agreement. No deployment milestones attached. No strings.

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And NVDA CEO Jensen Huang already told CNBC there was “no question” the company would invest in OpenAI’s next round. The man’s moving like he never doubted it for a second.

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The full round is expected to close at around $100 billion total, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) also in the mix.

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The deal isn’t final yet, so more headlines are coming.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch for confirmation that this round closes. Once NVDA’s $30 billion is locked in and OpenAI hits that $730 billion valuation on paper, NVDA and MSFT are the two tickers most likely to move on the news.

🛍️ The gavel came down hard...

And e-commerce stocks threw a party.

via GIPHY

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Toupee Fiasco (Trump) does not have the legal authority to impose tariffs under the International Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

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Why does that matter?

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Because IEEPA is the law he used to push through most of his tariff agenda, including ending the “de minimis” exemption allowing low-value packages to ship from China duty-free.

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The ruling hit fast.

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Amazon (AMZN) climbed 1%, while Etsy (ETSY) led the pack with a 5% gain. Shopify (SHOP), Wayfair (W), eBay (EBAY), and Temu’s parent Pinduoduo Holdings (PDD) all popped 3%.

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Apple (AAPL) alone paid about $3.3 billion in tariffs and is now in line to recover some back.

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Companies had already started filing lawsuits ahead of the ruling.

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The catch? Toupee Fiasco announced a new 10% global tariff in response. This story is nowhere near over.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch how AMZN, ETSY, and SHOP react to whatever comes next from the White House on tariffs. With companies filing for refunds and a new 10% tariff already in the mix, this is a story that keeps moving.

⛽ 10 days to decide...

Toupee Fiasco told the world Thursday he’s got 10 days to decide whether to launch military strikes against Iran.

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“Maybe we’re going to make a deal,” he said. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

via GIPHY

Oil markets heard that. And started sweating.

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West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 2.3% to $66.68 a barrel the same day.

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Brent? Up 2% to $71.75.

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WTI is up 6% for the week and 16% for the year.

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Here’s the setup traders are watching…

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The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier is already in the Middle East. The USS Gerald Ford is on its way. That’s two aircraft carriers heading to the same neighborhood. At the same time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was running military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most watched oil chokepoint.

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U.S. and Iran envoys met in Geneva this week to talk nuclear. VP JD Vance said Iran didn’t even address Toupee Fiasco’s red lines.

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The clock is ticking.

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🥡 The Takeaway: Watch ​USO​ and ​XLE​. Every headline out of the White House or the Middle East is going to move them.

💫 TMYK
​A quick pop quiz to help you learn about the market. The more you know!​
​

Buying and selling stocks outside normal market hours is called ______ trading.

a.) after-hours

b.) blue-chip

c.) value

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Scroll down for the answer!

Gimme some mo'
​More news from 'round the market.
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🔐 Guidance miss hits cyber​
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) got hit after earnings, but the real convo is whether AI agents make cyber a bigger need, not a smaller one. [Link]

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​🚗💨 DoorDash stock spins the block​
DoorDash (DASH) is spending big to merge DoorDash, Deliveroo, and Wolt into one platform, and Wall Street’s deciding if the upgrade is worth the headache. [Link]

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🛋️ Couch shopping gets cheap​
Wayfair (W) says it’s taking share because shoppers want low prices while tariffs, high rates, and slow home sales keep the furniture aisle on struggle. [Link]

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🛒 Walmart sets the retail vibe​
Walmart (WMT) results matter less for the quarter and more for what they say about the whole shopper mood heading into spring. [Link]

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​🧪 Moderna gets a do-over​
Moderna (MRNA) got the FDA to reverse course and review its mRNA flu shot, putting a big August decision date back on the calendar. [Link]

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​🏦 Private credit's lookin' shaky​
Blue Owl (OWL) tried to prove its software loans are fine, but investors heard “redemption stress” and ran anyway. [Link]

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​🎨 Figma’s AI pay plan pops​
Figma (FIG) is turning its AI design tool into a paid add-on in March, which is a flex while the rest of software is still catching strays from the AI panic. [Link]

🤳🏾 Let me check my palm pilot
​Earnings events on deck this coming week.

Market Outlook
​A look at how the market does historically over the next week.

Data provided by Swingset.

Trend of the Week

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a trend of going up over the next week.

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It's gone up 11 out of the last 15 years moving an average of 2.62% and projected to repeat this move Feb 20 - 27.

💫 TMYK - Answer

Buying and selling stocks outside normal market hours is called ______ trading.

a.) after-hours
​

Fewer people trade then, so prices can move faster and look more jumpy.

To wealth in every sense of the word, Tela Holcomb ​​​​

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